Despite steady job creation, record stock market gains and faster economic improvement in recent months, new consumer findings from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) surprisingly reveal that a smaller and smaller share of households think that it’s a good time to buy or sell a home – an adjustment from most earlier rebounds.
Housing requirement fades at the same time economy booms
In accordance with NAR’s fourth-quarter Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) survey, households also are less confident concerning the economy and their financial situation.
With 2017 coming to a close, optimism among renters about purchasing a home looks like it’s softening slightly. After rising to 62% last quarter, the proportion of renters who believe now is a good time to purchase dipped to 60% (57% a year ago). Overall, probably the most optimistic people about buying are current homeowners (79%; 80% last quarter), households with incomes above $100,000 and those living in the more affordable Midwest and South regions.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says this fall’s pitiful supply levels and weaker affordability conditions are likely casting doubt that now could be the best time to purchase.
“The trifecta of faster economic expansion, robust hiring and low rates on mortgages could be creating a boost in optimism and home sales as 2017 winds down,” says Yun. “Sadly, this isn’t the case. While overall demand remains high, it isn’t translating to meaningful sales gains. A great number of prospective first-time buyers see few options within their budget and home prices that happen to be rising considerably quicker than their incomes.
“Until we start seeing a steady increase in new and existing inventory, sales will fail to deliver on their full potential and many would-be first-time buyers will be forced to continue renting,” adds Yun.
Despite highly favorable sellers’ markets throughout the country, the proportion of homeowners who believe now is a good time to sell a home decreased this quarter to 76% (80% last quarter); although it still remains much larger than a year ago (62%). Similar to previous quarters, households in the West continue to be the most optimistic about selling a home and the least optimistic about buying.
“The good news for possible inventory gains heading into 2018 is the fact that a much larger share of homeowners compared to a year ago think it’s a good time to sell,” says Yun. “However, the decline in the latest quarter is worth monitoring. Realtors say the lack of new home construction in their markets is giving many potential trade-up buyers’ hesitation about putting their home on the market out of fear they won’t find another property to buy. This indecisiveness only exacerbates tight inventory conditions and slows housing turnover.”
Even with the economy expanding above 3% the last two quarters, along with another year of solid job gains, fewer households in the final quarter of 2017 (52%) believe the economy is improving in comparison to the third quarter (57%) and a year ago (54%). For the fourth straight quarter, economic optimism from respondents residing in rural and suburban areas outpaced those living in urban areas.
Slightly lower economic confidence this quarter also resulted in households having slightly diminished feelings with regards to their financial situation. Respondents’ confidence that their financial circumstances will improve in six months fell from 62.0 in September to 59.1 in December. Last year, the index was 59.8.
“The significant rise in home values and the stock market at record highs are why a majority of homeowners, as well as those with incomes above $100,000, are more optimistic about the economy than renters and those with lower incomes,” says Yun. “The overall job market and economy are very healthy. If housing supply improves enough next year to boost the nation’s homeownership rate, it’s very likely more households will feel upbeat about their future.”
Have a questions or concern? Nick & Cindy Davis with RE/MAX Premier Group are here to assist you. We are always a just a click here away or call 813-300-7116